Pittsfield, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

653
FXUS63 KDTX 300004
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
804 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Frost Advisory is in effect late tonight and Wednesday morning
for all of Southeast Michigan north of Lenawee and Wayne counties.

- Rain and some embedded thunderstorms arrive Wednesday night and
continue through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will veer to the north and northeast this evening into tonight
as high pressure builds across the area. Gusty winds at the
beginning of this TAF period will continue to decline into this
evening as well. VFR skies are likely to prevail through this TAF
period. Though, the northerly flow will usher in Lake Huron low
clouds. Some uncertainty if any lower ceilings reach the TAF sites
tomorrow morning, but current expectation is for any lower ceiling
to hold east.

For DTW...Crosswind threshold concerns remain for a couple more
hours as winds continue to wane into tonight.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium to high for crosswind threshold early this evening. Low
  tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

DISCUSSION...

A last minute flare-up of scattered storms is ongoing along the cold
front that are now exiting SE Mi at forecast issuance. That leaves
the post frontal wind field for Wind Advisory consideration through
6 PM but which is also dropping off from earlier day peak gusts in
the 50 mph range. The Wind Advisory is projected to expire on time
at 6 PM as gusts drop below 40 mph and then continue downward
through sunset.

While just marginally supportive of convection, the temperature
gradient across the cold front is more impressive. After record to
near record highs in the lower to mid 80s all areas, readings toward
the Tri Cities are already dropping through the 60s with similar
trends expected as the colder air spreads across the rest of SE Mi
this evening. A reinforcing cold air surge then occurs late tonight
with a more northerly wind shift that takes readings down through the
30s to near the freezing mark by sunrise Wednesday nearly everywhere
outside of metro Detroit. Temperatures so close to freezing for
several hours is the pro warranting a Frost Advisory over cons about
wind speed, clouds, and warm ground. Lingering light northerly wind
has potential to go calm under clear sky over inland areas. Clouds
are more of a benefit on temperatures toward Lake Huron but with low
confidence on coverage if Td drops into the 20s as shown in 12Z HREF
projections. April 30th sun intensity combines with dominant high
pressure to quickly lift temperatures and dissipate low clouds
during the morning. Highs in the lower to mid 60s are right around
normal for the last day of April.

Today`s cold front is still nearby to the south along the Ohio
valley by Wednesday night as the current 4 Corners low pressure
system moves out into the Plains. This progression initially just
increases clouds across Lower Mi until mid level moisture transport
accelerates after midnight. Given the strength of the front today,
it`s not surprising model agreement is good on a sharp 850-700 mb
theta-e gradient returning back northward as SW flow increases
toward 40 kts in the layer. Showers blossom as a result and guidance
POPs look good trending categorical late Wednesday night the lasting
through Thursday.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure system north of Georgian Bay is tracking into
Quebec this afternoon while pulling a cold front down across the
region. The cold front should be through the area by early this
evening which will end the thunderstorm chances. The elevated winds
due to the tight gradient will hold for several hours in the wake of
the front but will be decrease fairly quickly around nightfall.
Current observations over Lake Superior support the current forecast
with the tight gradient behind the low still producing gales but the
west half of the lake is already down to peaking at 25 knots. So
wind concerns for a few more hours. High pressure builds in tonight
through Wednesday with wind becoming light and variable. The next
low is then set to arrive Thursday into Friday. The gradient is not
very tight with this low and the cold advection is fairly weak
behind it so winds look to hold below 25 knots at this time.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ047>049-
     053>055-060>063-068>070-075.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ361>363-421-422-
     441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......DRK


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